At a Glance
- For the heart of summer, the upcoming weather pattern looks a little strange.
- First, we're going to get at least some relief from the searing heat in much of the South.
- Unfortunately, that will also come with a chance of thunderstorms most days.
- The nation's most excessive heat will be squeezed into the Great Basin and interior Northwest
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The weather pattern over the next several days will look odd for late July, with record heat pushed into the Great Basin and Northwest as the Deep South gets a bit of heat relief.
We'll explain later why this weird weather is happening, but what originally caught our eye was the 6- to 10-day temperature outlook released by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center on Tuesday.
It seems increasingly difficult to find any areas of below-average temperatures in extended outlooks these days. Instead, the NOAA-CPC outlook for the last full week of July has a pronounced bullseye of temperatures cooler than average over the Southern Plains. Meanwhile, areas most likely to be hotter than usual are in the West, as far north as the Canadian border.
(For even more granular weather data tracking in your area, view your 15-minute details forecast in our Premium Pro experience.)
Southern "heat relief": Late July into early August is typically the hottest time of year in much of the South.
That's because cold fronts usually fizzle before reaching the South in mid-summer. Instead, expansive bubbles of high pressure known as heat domes usually keep the South sizzling.
But this developing odd weather pattern has pushed a weak cold front into the South.
That will shave several degrees off the recent searing heat of the past few weeks. Highs in the 80s will be more common than 90s in much of the South.
And somewhat less humid air may also filter into parts of the region, particularly from Oklahoma to Kentucky and Tennessee, the next few days. That could knock lows down into the 60s and allow people in those areas to give their AC a few hours break, perhaps even open windows and air out a bit, at least in the morning.
(MAPS: 10-Day U.S. Forecast Highs, Lows)
But there's a catch: This "less hot" weather won't be accompanied by clear skies in much of the South.
The previously mentioned cold front has stalled. While it won't be as hot, the still warm and humid air will fuel showers and thunderstorms over much of the South, particularly from Texas to the Carolinas, but also at times in the Plains states.
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While it won't rain the entire time, expect more showers and storms than the typical summertime isolated "splash and dash" brief soakers into next week. The increased cloudiness, and bursts of rain, will also hold temperatures down a bit.
By later next week, more humid air and a better chance of showers and t-storms will flow north into the Midwest and Northeast.
(MAPS: 7-Day U.S. Forecast Rain)
Where will the heat go: So if it's not excessively hot in the South, East or Midwest and it's mid-summer, where is that heat?
Unfortunately, parts of the West will draw that short straw again.
This weekend, triple-digit highs won't simply be trapped in the typical Desert Southwest locations, but will extend as far north as eastern Washington state.
Daily record highs are possible in Boise, Idaho, and Spokane, Washington. And not to be left out, record heat is also possible in parts of heat-fatigued California and the Southwest, including Las Vegas. We don't expect heat as extreme as the record heat wave a few weeks ago, but it could last into at least the first half of next week.
(Further beef up your forecast with our detailed, hour-by-hour breakdown for the next 8 days – only available on our Premium Pro experience.)
Why the weird setup: To put it simply, the atmosphere will be clogged up over the Lower 48 states next week.
A heat dome will intensify over the West and extend its sultry tentacle into western Canada and Alaska.
Together with the Bermuda high in place, that will trap an area of low pressure over the central U.S., keeping it spinning there for days.
That spinning pocket of cooler air aloft will also help kick off the showers and thunderstorms we mentioned earlier from the Plains to the South as long as that feature remains in place. That could last much of next week.
Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. His lifelong love of meteorology began with a close encounter with a tornado as a child in Wisconsin. He completed a Bachelor's degree in physics at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, then a Master's degree working with dual-polarization radar and lightning data at Colorado State University. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him on X (formerly Twitter), Threads, Facebook and Bluesky.
